Best Non-Hall of Fame Pitchers by Wins Above Replacement (or “Yet Another Case for Bert Blyleven”)
I’m pretty pumped about Wins Above Replacement (WAR). We finally have a metric that combines overall production (offensive, defensive, pitching, baserunning, throwing, etc.), adjusts it for park and era, and gives us a number. Here’s a detailed description of what goes into WAR.
Over at BaseballProjection.com, which is pretty much the only site that rivals Baseball-Reference in awesomeness, they’ve calculated WAR from 1871 to the present. The older numbers certainly have some estimation involved, but it’s awesome to simply have a number to go by. They’ve published the Top 500 hitters of all time and Top 500 pitchers of all time by WAR.
A nice addition was a column that states whether or not the player is in the Hall of Fame. I found it interesting to see some non-Hall of Famers mixed in near the top. I began wondering if this new metric could perhaps shed some light on some under-appreciated stars.
Here’s a list of the Top 20 not in the Hall of Fame:
| Player (links to BP & BR) | Rank | WAR | First Year | Last Year | Hall Eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Clemens (B-Ref Page) | 2 | 128.4 | 1984 | 2007 | no |
| Greg Maddux (B-Ref Page) | 8 | 96.8 | 1986 | 2008 | no |
| Randy Johnson (B-Ref Page) | 12 | 91.8 | 1988 | active | no |
| Bert Blyleven (B-Ref Page) | 13 | 90.1 | 1970 | 1992 | yes |
| Pedro Martinez (B-Ref Page) | 23 | 75.1 | 1992 | active | no |
| Mike Mussina (B-Ref Page) | 24 | 74.8 | 1991 | 2008 | no |
| Curt Schilling (B-Ref Page) | 28 | 69.7 | 1988 | 2007 | no |
| Tom Glavine (B-Ref Page) | 29 | 67.0 | 1987 | 2008 | no |
| Rick Reuschel (B-Ref Page) | 30 | 66.3 | 1972 | 1991 | yes |
| Tony Mullane (B-Ref Page) | 33 | 65.1 | 1881 | 1894 | yes |
| Kevin Brown (B-Ref Page) | 34 | 64.8 | 1986 | 2005 | no |
| Jim McCormick (B-Ref Page) | 35 | 64.7 | 1878 | 1887 | yes |
| John Smoltz (B-Ref Page) | 36 | 64.6 | 1988 | active | no |
| Luis Tiant (B-Ref Page) | 42 | 60.1 | 1964 | 1982 | yes |
| Tommy John (B-Ref Page) | 43 | 59.0 | 1963 | 1989 | yes |
| Jerry Koosman (B-Ref Page) | 44 | 58.8 | 1967 | 1985 | yes |
| David Cone (B-Ref Page) | 47 | 57.5 | 1986 | 2003 | yes |
| Charlie Buffinton (B-Ref Page) | 53 | 56.1 | 1882 | 1892 | yes |
| Larry Jackson (B-Ref Page) | 54 | 55.6 | 1955 | 1968 | yes |
| Frank Tanana (B-Ref Page) | 57 | 55.1 | 1973 | 1993 | yes |
Quite a few guys on that table aren’t eligible yet — and a fair number are active. Let’s trim it so we only have eligible pitchers:
| Player (links to BP & BR) | Rank | WAR | First Year | Last Year | Hall Eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bert Blyleven (B-Ref Page) | 13 | 90.1 | 1970 | 1992 | yes |
| Rick Reuschel (B-Ref Page) | 30 | 66.3 | 1972 | 1991 | yes |
| Tony Mullane (B-Ref Page) | 33 | 65.1 | 1881 | 1894 | yes |
| Jim McCormick (B-Ref Page) | 35 | 64.7 | 1878 | 1887 | yes |
| Luis Tiant (B-Ref Page) | 42 | 60.1 | 1964 | 1982 | yes |
| Tommy John (B-Ref Page) | 43 | 59.0 | 1963 | 1989 | yes |
| Jerry Koosman (B-Ref Page) | 44 | 58.8 | 1967 | 1985 | yes |
| David Cone (B-Ref Page) | 47 | 57.5 | 1986 | 2003 | yes |
| Charlie Buffinton (B-Ref Page) | 53 | 56.1 | 1882 | 1892 | yes |
| Larry Jackson (B-Ref Page) | 54 | 55.6 | 1955 | 1968 | yes |
| Frank Tanana (B-Ref Page) | 57 | 55.1 | 1973 | 1993 | yes |
The list of pitchers is a bit less impressive then. But one sticks out like a sore thumb. Mr. Bert Blyleven. Not only is he at the top of both lists, he is also (according to WAR) the thirteenth greatest pitcher of all time. And he’s not in the Hall of Fame. Unreal.
Just to visualize how much better he is from the next-best non-Hall pitchers, here’s a line graph by WAR:
Can we get this guy in there please?