Quantifying Excellence: Using Wins Above Excellence along with Wins Above Replacement
I think I’ve made it clear that I love Wins Above Replacement (WAR). I do have a couple of issues with it, though. One issue is that, like other counting stats, WAR makes it hard to distinguish between the truly elite players and the “compilers” (guys who hang around forever and accumulate impressive career totals through consistently solid—but not exceptional—seasons).
Don’t get me wrong—I have a strong affection for “compilers”. I believe many of them do belong in the Hall of Fame. Longevity is a wonderful thing. But let’s look at Harold Baines. He accumulated 37.0 WAR in his career—not a Hall of Fame number per se, but still a very good total. Baines played for 22 seasons and was solid for most of them. But he had no distinguishable peak and built that total despite never reaching 4.0 WAR in a single season. Albert Belle, on the other hand, accumulated 37.1 career WAR. He had five seasons that cleared 4.0 and would be considered a demonstration of excellence—7.4, 6.6, 6.0, 4.9, and 4.7 WAR. Belle, of course, didn’t last nearly as long as Baines, retiring after 12 seasons. Baines and Belle provided similar value over their career, but Baines did it with sustained performance and Belle did it with a shorter peak of excellence many players can’t reach. Of course, on the other hand Belle couldn’t stay on the field like Baines could. (more…)